“We’ll let the season play itself out and look forward to building for the future,” said Ottawa Senators’ owner Eugene Melnyk. “The time has come to make some of the most difficult decisions that an owner can make. Don’t think for one second that we’re not putting a plan in place that’s methodical, calculated and with a lot of forethought to win a Stanley Cup. I’ve been working on a plan and that plan is now in motion.”
Melnyk’s statement surely no endorsement or vote of confidence of the current makeup, the Senators now move toward rebuilding the ‘right’ way. With this season going as it has, Melnyk has mandated to scrap the current and look toward next season, moving forward with a younger approach.
That means head coach Cory Clouston, yet to be fired, is unlikely to survive the off-season. Bryan Murray, general manager since 2007, will be offered an advisory role to the team’s hockey operations, paving the way for the arrival of a younger regime. Some speculation points to analyst Pierre McGuire as the team’s next GM. An assistant coach with the Senators from 1994 to 1996, McGuire has been a candidate for other GM roles league-wide, most recently with the Tampa Bay Lightning and Minnesota Wild.
And that’s just the off-ice moves. The on-ice moves have already begun, starting with the trade of Mike Fisher to the Nashville Predators, returning two draft picks to the Senators, including a first rounder, which will now couple with the Senators’ own first round pick, an all-but-assured lottery selection. That pick, in particular, will play a large role in the Senators’ rebuild, whereby the team could select highly touted Swedish defenseman Adam Larsson, or one of CHL forwards Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Gabriel Landeskog, or Sean Couturier.
Aside from the 2001 trade with the New York Islanders that landed the Senators second overall pick Jason Spezza, Ottawa has not selected top five in the entry draft since 1996, using the first overall pick to select defenseman Chris Phillips who, interestingly enough, is likely to be moved prior to this year’s trade deadline. The division-rival Boston Bruins are believed to be interested in adding Phillips among their top four blueliners. Though he holds a no-trade clause, it is believed that the 32-year-old pending unrestricted free agent would accept a trade out of Ottawa and to a playoff contender like the Bruins. Phillips has ties to Bruins’ GM Peter Chiarelli, former assistant GM in Ottawa, as well as captain and former Senator Zdeno Chara (It has to be mentioned how different the Senators’ fate could be had the team re-signed Chara, rather than the since-gone Wade Redden, in the summer of 2006. That blunder could be pinpointed for the Senators’ freefall).
Other names that could be on the move include Chris Neil and possibly Spezza. Unlikely to move: The oft-unmotivated Alexei Kovalev, who holds a $5-million expiring contract, as well as signed-until-2013 winger Milan Michalek. Little speculation surrounds veteran defenseman Sergei Gonchar, who has disappointed in his inaugural season in Ottawa, but the belief is his game would only improve in a better surrounding. It is unlikely that captain Daniel Alfredsson, with two years remaining on his contract, will be moved. Expect Alfredsson to finish his career in Ottawa.
But just how bad has this season been for the Senators? The fact that Alfredsson leads the team with a middling 31 points through two-thirds of the season (less than 0.6 points per game) sits the Senators last league-wide among team leading scorers. To put that into perspective, the San Jose Sharks, as one example, have seven players with 36 or more points. Still, one bright light to a dim Senators’ season is sophomore defenseman Erik Karlsson, who has looked more than impressive. Karlsson will be a piece the Senators build around, as will centre Nick Foligno and Swedish goalie Robin Lehner. Young defensemen like Jared Cowen and David Rundblad could soon join Karlsson on the Ottawa blueline. And while the emphasis is to stockpile prospects and draft picks, the Senators could have as much as $15 million freed-up on the salary cap this summer through players leaving as unrestricted free agents, meaning the team could make some prudent additions this off-season.
There has been plenty of focus on the Edmonton Oilers, who have elected for the long-term rebuild, building around the likes of Taylor Hall, Magnus Paajarvi, Jordan Eberle, and Sam Gagner, among others. Like the Senators, the Oilers currently hold a top pick in this year’s draft, after selecting Hall first overall last year. But is such a rebuilding method a guarantee for success? The Atlanta Thrashers and Columbus Blue Jackets, joining the NHL in 1999 and 2000 respectively, serve as harsh reminders that long-term rebuilds don’t always go as planned. In 12 drafts, the Thrashers have held nine top-10 picks, and have a total of zero playoff victories to show for such efforts. The ugly no-post-season-victories feat is also held by Columbus, which on just one occasion has selected lower than eighth overall in the entry draft. As it stands, both Atlanta and Columbus are once again on the outside of this year’s playoff picture.
Another option: The belief of Ottawa’s provincial rival Toronto Maple Leafs, with no first round picks dating to 2009, is to add talent through trades and signings, like Kris Versteeg, Tyler Bozak, Clarke MacArthur, and Jonas Gustavsson, all younger than 26 years old, in hope of expediting the traditional rebuild. Though that rebuilding style varies from what is anticipated in Ottawa, Toronto has changed all but six faces (Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolai Kulemin, Tomas Kaberle, Luke Schenn, Carl Gunnarsson, and James Reimer) since 2008, and a similar transition should be expected in Ottawa.
For the Senators, the trade deadline, two weeks away, will serve as the next step forward. And while a rebuild may not always guarantee success, it does however provide more hope than the current wheel-spinning, patchwork version of the Senators.
